Winning the War on Terror: Supply-side Perspective

This article introduces a supply-side perspective to the study of counterterrorism, where terrorists are viewed as combining terrorist attacks to achieve an aggregate output (e.g., social anxiety). With this novel approach, the elasticity of substitution, associated with the terrorists’ production function, becomes a key determinant of the effectiveness of deterrence. If this elasticity is large, then countermeasures have very limited effectiveness when directed at a single mode of attack. If, in contrast, attack modes are complements, focused countermeasures can completely eliminate terrorists’ gains. Counterterrorism measures are more effective when terrorist campaigns display little diversity of attacks. The article also identifies when proactive policies are more effective than defensive policies. The supply-side perspective gives a new pessimistic view to benevolence, which reduces the cost of nonterrorist activities.